Different Trends in the Incidence and Mortality Rates of Prostate Cancer Between China and the USA: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Abstract

PurposeThis study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to determine the differences in the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer (PCa) between China and the USA from 1990 to 2019.MethodThe age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) in China and the USA from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from GBD 2019. Annual percentage changes and relative risks of ASIR and ASDR were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort models, respectively.ResultsThe ASIR of PCa in China continually increased from 1990 to 2019, while in the USA it increased from 1990 to 1994 and then continually decreased until 2015, and then slightly increased again until 2019. The ASDR in China did not change, and the trend of ASDR in the USA was similar to the trend of the ASIR in the USA. The incidence of PCa increased with age in China, but decreased after the age of 75 years in the USA. A period effect was present, with the risk of developing PCa increasing continuously over longer time periods. Those born later had a lower risk of PCa or death, indicating a cohort effect.ConclusionPCa is becoming more problematic for Chinese males. Disease trends in the USA indicate that large-scale screening may be beneficial and should be immediately implemented among high-risk groups in China.