Trends in Geographic Sensitivity of Marine Fishes Over Decades in the North Sea

Abstract

Accounting for biotic interactions is important for predicting species and ecosystem variation under changing climate but difficult to achieve in practice. The proportion of geographical overlap between species, called species geographical sensitivity (SGS), could be used to gauge the potential for species interactions. Species with increasingly high SGS could have the potential to experience more interactions with other species and vice versa, which might have important implications in ecological assessment, particularly at a community level, in the face of climate change. We compiled fish occurrences in the North Sea from 1983 to 2020 and calculated annual mean SGS (mSGS) to systematically evaluate their temporal changes and to estimate influences of species traits on the relative temporal changes in mSGS. The results showed that 36.3% of species significantly changed their mSGS over time, with high correlations between changes in species range size and overlap with other species. The species’ averaged mSGS before warming was highly correlated with the relative change in mSGS. Depth range, body length, and age at maturity together explained most variation in mSGS among these species. Contemporary climate change is expected to reorganize species distributions and interactions and substantially alter marine ecosystem functioning. Our assessment opens a new avenue for evaluating climate change impacts on species geographical interactions, and such geographical changes may be contingent on species traits.