Estimating Exposure Risk to Guide Behaviour During the SARS-COV2 Pandemic

Author:

Smyth Barry

Abstract

The end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 was a challenging time for many countries in Europe, as the combination of colder weather, holiday celebrations, and the emergence of more transmissible virus variants conspired to create a perfect storm for virus transmission across the continent. At the same time lockdowns appeared to be less effective than they were earlier in the pandemic. In this paper we argue that one contributing factor is that existing ways of communicating risk—case numbers, test positivity rates, hospitalisations etc.—are difficult for individuals to translate into a level of personal risk, thereby limiting the ability of individuals to properly calibrate their own behaviour. We propose an new more direct measure of personal risk, exposure risk, to estimate the likelihood that an individual will come into contact with an infected person, and we argue that it can play an important role, alongside more conventional statistics, to help translate complex epidemiological data into a simple measure to guide pandemic behaviour. We describe how exposure risk can be calculated using existing data and infection prediction models, and use it to evaluate and compare the exposure risk associated with 39 European countries.

Funder

Science Foundation Ireland

Publisher

Frontiers Media SA

Reference43 articles.

1. Covid-19 spread in the uk: the end of the beginning?;Anderso;Lancet,2020

2. Effects of the covid-19 pandemic on population mobility under mild policies: Causal evidence from sweden;Dahlberg;arXiv Preprint arXiv:2004.09087,2020

3. Staying at home: mobility effects of covid-19;Engle;Available at SSRN,2020

4. Variation in government responses to covid-19;Hale;Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper,2020

5. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis;Verity;Lancet,2020

Cited by 2 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3