A Fly in the Ointment: How to Predict Environmentally Driven Phenology of an Organism That Partially Regulates Its Microclimate

Author:

Chappell Thomas M.,Rusch Travis W.,Tarone Aaron M.

Abstract

Phenological models representing physiological and behavioral processes of organisms are used to study, predict, and optimize management of ecological subsystems. One application of phenological models is the prediction of temporal intervals associated with the measurable physiological development of arthropods, for the purpose of estimating future time points of interest such as the emergence of adults, or estimating past time points such as the arrival of ovipositing females to new resources. The second of these applications is of particular use in the conduct of forensic investigations, where the time of a suspicious death must be estimated on the basis of evidence, including arthropods with measurable size/age, found at the death scene. Because of the longstanding practice of using necrophagous insects to estimate time of death, standardized data and methods exist. We noticed a pattern in forensic entomological validation studies: bias in the values of a model parameter is associated with improved model fit to data, for a reason that is inconsistent with how the models used in this practice are interpreted. We hypothesized that biased estimates for a threshold parameter, representing the lowest temperature at which insect development is expected to occur, result in models’ accounting for behavioral and physiological thermoregulation but in a way that results in low predictive reliability and narrowed applicability of models involving these biased parameter estimates. We explored a more realistic way to incorporate thermoregulation into insect phenology models with forensic entomology as use context, and found that doing so results in improved and more robust predictive models of insect phenology.

Funder

National Institute of Justice

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Publisher

Frontiers Media SA

Subject

Ecology,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cited by 4 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3