Migratory connectivity of Blue-winged Teal: risk implications for avian influenza virus introduction to Cuba

Abstract

In recent years, the complex evolution of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) situation reflects a change in the eco-epidemiology of the causative agent which, among other demands, renews the need for better understanding of the connectivity between countries through the main virus reservoirs to improve prevention, early warning and mitigate the associated risks. Our objective was to determine migratory connectivity of Blue-winged Teal and evaluate the risk of AIV introduction to Cuba by this species. The stable hydrogen isotope (δ2H) value in flight feathers was analyzed. Individuals were sampled during the migratory season of 2021 (N=126) and winter residence of 2020 (N=152), in western and central Cuba, respectively. Based on banding records from 1955 to 2018, the transition probabilities from 3 breeding areas in North America to 9 wintering areas was estimated with a Burnham’s live-recapture dead-recovery modeling framework. A map of likely origin in North America of the individuals sampled for each season was generated, combining the isotopic information and transition probabilities. Evidence of an age-related and phenological pattern in migratory origins was identified. Individuals harvested in the migratory season in western Cuba were most likely from molt or natal areas in the prairies and forest regions from United States and southern Canada. Alternatively, individuals harvested in winter in the center of Cuba had the most likely origin in the U.S. prairie region. The spatial-temporal pattern of AIV prevalence in the estimated region was analyzed and suggestions are made to assist the Cuban system of active AIV surveillance of wild birds.