Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Urban Embedded Social Networks

Abstract

BackgroundDue to the continual recurrence of COVID-19 in urban areas, it is important to know more about the evolution of the epidemic within this setting to mitigate the risk of the situation getting worse. As the virus spreads through human society, the social networks of confirmed cases can provide us with crucial new insights on this question.MethodsBased on the epidemiological reports of 235 COVID-19 cases in Nanjing, we constructed a social contact network for the epidemic. By analyzing the structure of this network, we explored the transmission characteristics of the epidemic, to provide evidence-based explanations for its transmission.ResultsIn our constructed transmission network, more than half (95/165, 57.58%) of patients were found not to have transmitted the infection, with only 15 (9.10%) source patients accounting for more than a third of the contagion (60, 36.36%), suggesting that the transmission of COVID-19 varies per individuals. Patients in the 31 to 50 age group were the main source of infectious clusters, with females playing a more active role in passing on the infection. Network component analysis identified nine components with disproportionate concentrations of influential patients, accounting for 49.09% (81) of the patients and 59.09% (78) of epidemiological network contacts. Family aggregation may favor disease transmission, and parenthood is the relationship with the highest infection risk within the family cluster. In addition, some specific public places, such as chess and card parlors, were found to be notable hotspots for community infection.ConclusionThis study presents the evolution of the urban epidemic from the perspective of individual-level and socially interactive processes. This real-world evidence can help to increase public awareness of the epidemic, formulate countermeasures, and allocate limited public health resources for urban management.