Temporary impact on medical system and effectiveness of mitigation strategies after COVID-19 policy adjustment in China: a modeling study

Abstract

BackgroundAs China amends its “zero COVID” strategy, a sudden increase in the number of infections may overwhelm medical resources and its impact has not been quantified. Specific mitigation strategies are needed to minimize disruption to the healthcare system and to prepare for the next possible epidemic in advance.MethodWe develop a stochastic compartmental model to project the burden on the medical system (that is, the number of fever clinic visits and admission beds) of China after adjustment to COVID-19 policy, which considers the epidemiological characteristics of the Omicron variant, age composition of the population, and vaccine effectiveness against infection and severe COVD-19. We also estimate the effect of four-dose vaccinations (heterologous and homologous), antipyretic drug supply, non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), and triage treatment on mitigating the domestic infection peak.ResultAs to the impact on the medical system, this epidemic is projected to result in 398.02 million fever clinic visits and 16.58 million hospitalizations, and the disruption period on the healthcare system is 18 and 30 days, respectively. Antipyretic drug supply and booster vaccination could reduce the burden on emergency visits and hospitalization, respectively, while neither of them could not reduce to the current capacity. The synergy of several different strategies suggests that increasing the heterologous booster vaccination rate for older adult to over 90% is a key measure to alleviate the bed burden for respiratory diseases on the basis of expanded healthcare resource allocation.ConclusionThe Omicron epidemic followed the adjustment to COVID-19 policy overloading many local health systems across the country at the end of 2022. The combined effect of vaccination, antipyretic drug supply, triage treatment, and PHSMs could prevent overwhelming medical resources.