A Web-Based Prediction Model for Cancer-Specific Survival of Elderly Patients With Hypopharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinomas: A Population-Based Study

Abstract

Background: Hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (HPSCC) is one of the causes of death in elderly patients, an accurate prediction of survival can effectively improve the prognosis of patients. However, there is no accurate assessment of the survival prognosis of elderly patients with HPSCC. The purpose of this study is to establish a nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of elderly patients with HPSCC.Methods: The clinicopathological data of all patients from 2004 to 2018 were downloaded from the SEER database. These patients were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). The univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis confirmed independent risk factors for the prognosis of elderly patients with HPSCC. A new nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in elderly patients with HPSCC. Then used the consistency index (C-index), the calibration curve, and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) to evaluate the accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical value of the model.Results: A total of 3,172 patients were included in the study, and they were randomly divided into a training set (N = 2,219) and a validation set (N = 953). Univariate and multivariate analysis suggested that age, T stage, N stage, M stage, tumor size, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and marriage were independent risk factors for patient prognosis. These nine variables are included in the nomogram to predict the CSS of patients. The C-index for the training set and validation was 0.713 (95% CI, 0.697–0.729) and 0.703 (95% CI, 0.678–0.729), respectively. The AUC results of the training and validation set indicate that this nomogram has good accuracy. The calibration curve indicates that the observed and predicted values are highly consistent. DCA indicated that the nomogram has a better clinical application value than the traditional TNM staging system.Conclusion: This study identified risk factors for survival in elderly patients with HPSCC. We found that age, T stage, N stage, M stage, tumor size, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and marriage are independent prognostic factors. A new nomogram for predicting the CSS of elderly HPSCC patients was established. This model has good clinical application value and can help patients and doctors make clinical decisions.