Predictive models based on machine learning for bone metastasis in patients with diagnosed colorectal cancer

Author:

Li Tianhao,Huang Honghong,Zhang Shuocun,Zhang Yongdan,Jing Haoren,Sun Tianwei,Zhang Xipeng,Lu Liangfu,Zhang Mingqing

Abstract

BackgroundThis study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence predictive model for predicting the probability of developing BM in CRC patients.MethodsFrom SEER database, 50,566 CRC patients were identified between January 2015 and December 2019 without missing data. SVM and LR models were trained and tested on the dataset. Accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), and IDI were used to evaluate and compare the models.ResultsFor bone metastases in the entire cohort, SVM model with poly as kernel function presents the best performance, whose accuracy is 0.908, recall is 0.838, and AUC is 0.926, outperforming LR model. The top three most important factors affecting the model's prediction of BM include extraosseous metastases (EM), CEA, and size.ConclusionOur study developed an SVM model with poly as kernel function for predicting BM in CRC patients. SVM model could improve personalized clinical decision-making, help rationalize the bone metastasis screening process, and reduce the burden on healthcare systems and patients.

Publisher

Frontiers Media SA

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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