Curve matching to predict growth in patients receiving growth hormone therapy: An interpretable & explainable method

Abstract

Curve matching may be used to predict growth outcomes using data of patients whose growth curves resemble those of a new patient with growth hormone deficiency (GHD) and those born small for gestational age (SGA). We aimed to investigate the validity of curve matching to predict growth in patients with GHD and those born SGA receiving recombinant human growth hormone (r-hGH). Height data collected between 0–48 months of treatment were extracted from the easypod™ connect ecosystem and the easypod™ connect observational study. Selected patients with height standard deviation scores (HSDS) [-4, <-1] and age [3, <16y] at start were included. The ‘Matching Database’ consisted of patients’ monthly HSDS obtained by the broken stick method and imputation. Standard deviation (SD) was obtained from the observed minus the predicted HSDS (error) based on matched patients within the ‘Matching Database’. Data were available for 3,213 patients in the ‘Matching Database’, and 2,472 patients with 16,624 HSDS measurements in the observed database. When ≥2 HSDS measurements were available, the error SD for a one-year prediction was approximately 0.2, which corresponds to 1.1 cm, 1.3 cm, and 1.5 cm at 7, 11, and 15 years of age, respectively. Indication and age at treatment start (<11 vs ≥11 years) had a small impact on the error SD, with patients born SGA and patients aged <11 years at treatment start generally having slightly lower values. We conclude that curve matching is a simple and valid technique for predicting growth in patients with GHD and those born SGA.