Establishment of predictive nomogram and web-based survival risk calculator for malignant pleural mesothelioma: A SEER database analysis

Abstract

BackgroundMalignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is an uncommon condition with limited available therapies and dismal prognoses. The purpose of this work was to create a multivariate clinical prognostic nomogram and a web-based survival risk calculator to forecast patients’ prognoses.MethodsUsing a randomization process, training and validation groups were created for a retrospective cohort study that examined the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015 for individuals diagnosed with MPM (7:3 ratio). Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were the primary endpoints. Clinical traits linked to OS and CSS were identified using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) Cox regression analysis, which was also utilized to develop nomogram survival models and online survival risk calculators. By charting the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA), the model’s performance was assessed. The nomogram was used to classify patients into various risk categories, and the Kaplan-Meier method was used to examine each risk group’s survival rate.ResultsThe prognostic model comprised a total of 1978 patients. For the total group, the median OS and CSS were 10 (9.4-10.5) and 11 (9.4-12.6) months, respectively. As independent factors for OS and CSS, age, gender, insurance, histology, T stage, M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were chosen. The calibration graphs demonstrated good concordance. In the training and validation groups, the C-indices for OS and CSS were 0.729, 0.717, 0.711, and 0.721, respectively. Our nomogram produced a greater clinical net benefit than the AJCC 7th edition, according to DCA and ROC analysis. According to the cut-off values of 171 for OS and 189 for CSS of the total scores from our nomogram, patients were classified into two risk groups. The P-value < 0.001 on the Kaplan-Meier plot revealed a significant difference in survival between the two patient groups.ConclusionsPatient survival in MPM was correctly predicted by the risk evaluation model. This will support clinicians in the practice of individualized medicine.