Prognostic nomogram that predicts progression-free survival and overall survival of patients with ovarian clear cell carcinoma

Abstract

ObjectivesWe aims to develop nomograms to predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with ovarian clear cell carcinoma (OCCC) after primary treatment and compare the predictive accuracy with the currently used International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) system.MethodsWe collected data from 358 Chinese patients diagnosed with OCCC and who underwent standard treatment at our hospital. Patients diagnosed from 1982-9 to 2011-12 were classified as the training group and patients diagnosed from 2012-1 to 2016-11 were classified as the validation group. Nomograms were developed based on the training group and was validated in the validation group. The predictive performance was determined by concordance index and calibration curve.ResultsThe most predictive nomogram for PFS was constructed using variables: thrombosis, the FIGO staging, residual of the tumor and distant metastasis, with a concordance index of 0.738. While the nomogram for OS consisted of thrombosis, lymph node metastasis, residual of the tumor, malignant ascites/washing, and platinum resistance, with a concordance index of 0.835. The nomograms were internally validated by concordance indexes of 0.775 and 0.807 for predicting PFS and OS, respectively. In comparison, the concordance statistics for OS based on the FIGO staging was significantly lower (P<0.05).ConclusionWe have established two prognostic nomograms for recurrence and long-term survival in patients with OCCC after primary treatment in a large Chinese center and validated them in patients from the same center. This tool used variables specifically related to OCCC and was more accurate than the FIGO system. It is relatively easy to use in clinic for patient counseling, postoperative management, and follow-up for individual patients.