Risk factors analysis and the establishment of nomogram prediction model for PICC-related venous thrombosis in patients with lymphoma: a double-center cohort-based case-control study

Abstract

ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to examine the risk factors associated with the occurrence of PICC-Related Venous Thrombosis (PICC-RVTE) in individuals diagnosed with lymphoma, as well as to develop a predictive risk nomogram model.MethodsA total of 215 patients with lymphoma treated at Yunnan Provincial Tumor Hospital from January 2017 to December 2020 were retrospectively evaluated as the training cohort; 90 patients with lymphoma treated at the Department of Oncology of the First People’s Hospital of Anning, Affiliated to Kunming University of Science and Technology during the January 2021 to September 2023 were evaluated as the validation cohort. Independent influencing factors were analyzed by logistic regression, a nomogram was developed and validated, and the model was evaluated using internal and external data cohorts for validation.ResultsA total of 305 lymphoma patients were selected and 35 (11.48%) PICC-RVTE occurred, the median time was 13 days. The incidence within 1-2week was 65.71%. Multivariate analysis suggested that the activity amount, thrombosis history(within the last 12 months), ATIII, Total cholesterol and D-dimer levels were independently associated with PICC-RVTE, and a nomogram was constructed based on the multivariate analysis. ROC analysis indicated good discrimination in the training set (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.907, 95%CI:0.850-0.964) and the testing set (AUC = 0.896, 95%CI: 0.782-1.000) for the PICC-RVTE nomogram. The calibration curves showed good calibration abilities, and the decision curves indicated the clinical usefulness of the prediction nomograms.ConclusionsPatients should be advised to undergo color Doppler ultrasound system testing within two week after the implantation of a PICC catheter to detect PICC-RVTE at an early stage. The validated nomogram can be used to predict the risk of catheter-related thrombosis (CRT) in patients with lymphoma who received at least one chemotherapy after PICC catheterization, no bleeding tendency, no recent history of anticoagulant exposure and no severe heart, lung, renal insufficiency. This model has the potential to assist clinicians in formulating individualized treatment strategies for each patient.