How Well Does the ERA5 Reanalysis Capture the Extreme Climate Events Over China? Part I: Extreme Precipitation

Abstract

ERA5 is the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, with high spatiotemporal resolution and global coverage. However, the reliability of ERA5 for simulating extreme precipitation events is still unclear over China. In this study, 12 extreme precipitation indices and a comprehensive quantitative distance between indices of simulation and observation were used to evaluate ERA5 precipitation from three fundamental aspects: intensity, frequency, and duration. The geomorphological regionalization method was used to divide the subregions of China. The results showed that the ability of ERA5 to simulate annual total precipitation was better than that of daily precipitation. For the intensity indices, ERA5 performs well for simulating the PRCPTOT (annual total wet days precipitation) over China. ERA5 performs better on RX5day (max 5-days precipitation amount) and R95p (very wet days), especially in eastern China, than on RX1day (max 1-day precipitation amount) and R99p (extremely wet days). For the frequency indices, the ability of the ERA5 simulation increased as the amount of precipitation increased, except for northwestern China. However, the ability of ERA5 to simulate R50 mm (number of extreme heavy precipitation days) decreased. For the duration indices, ERA5 was better at simulating drought events than wet events in eastern China. Our results highlight the need for ERA5 to enhance the simulation of trend changes in extreme precipitation events.