Has China’s coal consumption really peaked?—Prediction and scenario analysis of China’s coal consumption peak under the double-carbon target

Abstract

After China’s “Double Carbon” strategy was proposed to reduce energy and consumption, the optimization of China’s energy consumption structure and whether China’s coal consumption have already reached its peak once again attracted attention. This paper uses the theory of system dynamics to build a system dynamics model of coal consumption. Based on data analysis and the grey prediction model, three categories and nine sub-scenarios are established and the peak coal consumption is analyzed under each scenario. The results show that: The peak of coal consumption in China can echo the strategic goal of peaking carbon in 2030, which is in line with the laws of reality. The economic growth rate has the greatest influence on the coal consumption peak, followed by industrial structure and coal consumption intensity, and the population growth rate has the least influence. The SD3 scenario is the optimal path for China’s future coal consumption development. Under this scenario, coal consumption will peak at 437.8 million tons in 2027. If the future energy consumption trend is close to the SD3 scenario, the socioeconomic growth rate will slow down, the population growth rate will slow down, the industrial structure optimization degree will be higher, and the intensity of coal consumption will be lower. The coal consumption peak varies greatly according to different development goals and transformation dynamics. Under the constraints of the established peak time, the scenario of coal consumption peak has a variety of combinations.