Polygenic risk score predicts all-cause death in East Asian patients with prior coronary artery disease

Abstract

IntroductionCoronary artery disease (CAD) is a highly heritable and multifactorial disease. Numerous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) facilitated the construction of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for predicting future incidence of CAD, however, exclusively in European populations. Furthermore, identifying CAD patients with elevated risks of all-cause death presents a critical challenge in secondary prevention, which will contribute largely to reducing the burden for public healthcare.MethodsWe recruited a cohort of 1,776 Chinese CAD patients and performed medical follow-up for up to 11 years. A pruning and thresholding method was used to calculate PRS of CAD and its 14 risk factors. Their correlations with all-cause death were computed via Cox regression.Results and discussionWe found that the PRS for CAD and its seven risk factors, namely myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, angina, heart failure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol and C-reaction protein, were significantly associated with death (P ≤ 0.05), whereas the PRS of body mass index displayed moderate association (P < 0.1). Elastic-net Cox regression with 5-fold cross-validation was used to integrate these nine PRS models into a meta score, metaPRS, which performed well in stratifying patients at different risks for death (P < 0.0001). Combining metaPRS with clinical risk factors further increased the discerning power and a 4% increase in sensitivity. The metaPRS generated from the genetic susceptibility to CAD and its risk factors can well stratify CAD patients by their risks of death. Integrating metaPRS and clinical risk factors may contribute to identifying patients at higher risk of poor prognosis.