Combining soil macropore flow with formation mechanism to the development of shallow landslide warning threshold in South China

Abstract

Because of the physical character of soil from granite weathering and the typhoon rains in South China, the model for early warnings of existing shallow landslides cannot be well applied in that area. This study developed a new shallow landslide model based on the effect of soil macropores for determining the rainfall threshold to post an early warning of the possibility of a shallow landslide in South China. We studied the hydrological effects of macropore flow and proposed a mechanistic model of the formation of shallow landslides by introducing the macropore coefficient of granite residual soil. The rainfall threshold of each slope unit was calculated by combining the hydrological model with the proposed shallow landslide model. Lastly, we tested the calculated result in the Maguihe watershed, Guangdong province, South China, which experienced a group of massive shallow landslides on 21 September 2010. The study results showed that the macropores of vegetation roots had a significant effect by increasing the permeability of granite residual soil. Coniferous forest land has the highest initial infiltration rate and stable infiltration rate, followed by shrub forest land, and then bare land. Statistical verification showed that the accurate prediction rate of the proposed model was 80.65%, which is adequate for early warning of shallow landslides in South China. We discuss the application conditions and parameter calibrations of the proposed model, and offer recommendations for future research.