Heterogeneous risk tolerance, in-groups, and epidemic waves

Abstract

There is a growing interest in the joint modeling of the dynamics of disease and health-related beliefs and attitudes, but coupling mechanisms are yet to be understood. We introduce a model where risk information, which can be delayed, comes in two flavors, including historical risk derived from perceived incidence data and predicted risk information. Our model also includes an interpretation domain where the behavioral response to risk information is subject to in-group pressure. We then simulate how the strength of behavioral reaction impacts epidemic severity as measured by epidemic peak size, number of waves, and final size. Simulated behavioral response is not effective when the level of protection that prophylactic behavior provides is as small as 50% or lower. At a higher level of 75% or more, we see the emergence of multiple epidemic waves. In addition, simulations show that different behavioral response profiles can lead to various epidemic outcomes that are non-monotonic with the strength of reaction to risk information. We also modeled heterogeneity in the response profile of a population and find they can lead to less severe epidemic outcome in terms of peak size.