Predicting Bulk Average Velocity with Rigid Vegetation in Open Channels Using Tree-Based Machine Learning: A Novel Approach Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

Predicting the bulk-average velocity (UB) in open channels with rigid vegetation is complicated due to the non-linear nature of the parameters. Despite their higher accuracy, existing regression models fail to highlight the feature importance or causality of the respective predictions. Therefore, we propose a method to predict UB and the friction factor in the surface layer (fS) using tree-based machine learning (ML) models (decision tree, extra tree, and XGBoost). Further, Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) was used to interpret the ML predictions. The comparison emphasized that the XGBoost model is superior in predicting UB (R = 0.984) and fS (R = 0.92) relative to the existing regression models. SHAP revealed the underlying reasoning behind predictions, the dependence of predictions, and feature importance. Interestingly, SHAP adheres to what is generally observed in complex flow behavior, thus, improving trust in predictions.