Examining the Controls on the Spatial Distribution of Landslides Triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake, China, Using Methods of Spatial Point Pattern Analysis

Abstract

Landslide risk management contributes to the sustainable development of the region. Understanding the spatial controls on the distribution of landslides triggered by earthquakes (EqTLs) is difficult in terms of the prediction and risk assessment of EqTLs. In this study, landslides are regarded as a spatial point pattern to test the controls on the spatial distribution of landslides and model the landslide density prediction. Taking more than 190,000 landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake (WcEqTLs) as the research object, the relative density estimation, Kolmogorov–Smirnov testing based on cumulative distribution, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, and Poisson density modeling are comprehensively applied to quantitatively determine and discuss the different control effects of seven factors representing earthquakes, geology, and topography. The distance to the surface ruptures (dSR) and the distance to the epicenter (dEp) show significant and strong control effects, which are far stronger than the other five factors. Using only the dSR, dEp, engineering geological rock group (Eg), and the range, a particularly effective Poisson model of landslide density is constructed, whose area under the ROC (AUC) reaches 0.9244 and whose very high-density (VHD) zones can contain 50% of landslides and only comprise 3.9% of the study areas. This research not only deepens our understanding of the spatial distribution of WcEqTLs but also provides new technical methods for such investigation and analysis.