Fatigue Load Modeling of Floating Wind Turbines Based on Vine Copula Theory and Machine Learning

Abstract

Fatigue load modeling is crucial for optimizing and assessing the lifespan of floating wind turbines. This study addresses the complex characteristics of fatigue loads on floating wind turbines under the combined effects of wind and waves. We propose a fatigue load modeling approach based on Vine copula theory and machine learning. Firstly, we establish an optimal joint probability distribution model using Vine copula theory for the four-dimensional random variables (wind speed, wave height, wave period, and wind direction), with model fit assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Secondly, representative wind and wave load conditions are determined using Monte Carlo sampling based on the established joint probability distribution model. Thirdly, fatigue load simulations are performed using the high-fidelity simulator OpenFAST to compute Damage Equivalent Load (DEL) values for critical components (blade root and tower base). Finally, utilizing measured wind and wave data from the Lianyungang Ocean Observatory in the East China Sea, simulation tests are conducted. We apply five commonly used machine learning models (Kriging, MLP, SVR, BNN, and RF) to develop DEL models for blade root and tower base. The results indicate that the RF model exhibits the smallest prediction error, not exceeding 3.9%, and demonstrates high accuracy, particularly in predicting flapwise fatigue loads at the blade root, achieving prediction accuracies of up to 99.97%. These findings underscore the effectiveness of our approach in accurately predicting fatigue loads under real-world conditions, which is essential for enhancing the reliability and efficiency of floating wind turbines.