Using the Bayes Probability Model to Evaluate the Risk of Accidents Caused by the Electronic Chart Display and Information System

Abstract

The obligated implementation of the Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS) began ten years ago, and during this time, we could observe different types of familiarization with the system through its users. The incorrect use of the ECDIS is a problem recognized by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), and it is caused by disparate levels of education and the quality of courses. Another aspect of the recognized problem is the unequal length of the ECDIS specific course training period through which users acquire type-specific familiarization with the system. Switching between different types of ECDISs makes users more prone to errors until they become fully familiar with the new product system. This paper analyzes seafarers’ knowledge and ECDIS usage over a 6-year period. Based on obtained data, models that enable risk analysis based on conditional probability were created. This paper presents the use of Bayesian modeling to reduce errors in maritime accidents caused by inadequate use of the ECDIS.