A Mechanistic Model for Long COVID Dynamics

Author:

Derrick Jacob1,Patterson Ben1ORCID,Bai Jie2,Wang Jin1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN 37403, USA

2. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China

Abstract

Long COVID, a long-lasting disorder following an acute infection of COVID-19, represents a significant public health burden at present. In this paper, we propose a new mechanistic model based on differential equations to investigate the population dynamics of long COVID. By connecting long COVID with acute infection at the population level, our modeling framework emphasizes the interplay between COVID-19 transmission, vaccination, and long COVID dynamics. We conducted a detailed mathematical analysis of the model. We also validated the model using numerical simulation with real data from the US state of Tennessee and the UK.

Funder

China Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

National Institutes of Health

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

General Mathematics,Engineering (miscellaneous),Computer Science (miscellaneous)

Reference46 articles.

1. Characterizing long COVID in an international cohort: 7 months of symptoms and their impact;Davis;eClinicalMedicine,2021

2. (2023, July 01). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Post-COVID Conditions, Available online: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/index.html.

3. Long COVID: Major findings, mechanisms and recommendations;Davis;Nat. Rev. Microbiol.,2023

4. The four most urgent questions about long COVID;Marshall;Nature,2021

5. Proal, A.D., and VanElzakker, M.B. (2021). Long COVID or Post-acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC): An overview of biological factors that may contribute to persistent symptoms. Front. Microbiol., 12.

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