Spatiotemporal Evolution of a Landslide: A Transition to Explosive Percolation

Abstract

Patterns in motion characterize failure precursors in granular materials. Currently, a broadly accepted method to forecast granular failure from data on motion is still lacking; yet such data are being generated by remote sensing and imaging technologies at unprecedented rates and unsurpassed resolution. Methods that deliver timely and accurate forecasts on failure from such data are urgently needed. Inspired by recent developments in percolation theory, we map motion data to time-evolving graphs and study their evolution through the lens of explosive percolation. We uncover a critical transition to explosive percolation at the time of imminent failure, with the emerging connected components providing an early prediction of the location of failure. We demonstrate these findings for two types of data: (a) individual grain motions in simulations of laboratory scale tests and (b) ground motions in a real landslide. Results unveil spatiotemporal dynamics that bridge bench-to-field signature precursors of granular failure, which could help in developing tools for early warning, forecasting, and mitigation of catastrophic events like landslides.