Exploring Differences and Evolution of Coordination Level of the Industrial Structure, Economy and Ecological Environment Complex System in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration

Abstract

Industrial structure (IS), economy (EC), and ecological environment (EE) could influence each other and constitute a complex system (IS-EC-EE). This study is to explore the differences and evolution of the coordination level of the IS-EC-EE complex system of 13 cities in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration by coupling coordination degree model, Markov chain, GM (1,1) model, Dagum Gini coefficient, and Kernel density estimation method to provide a reference for regional sustainable development. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of IS, EC, and EE had significant differences among the 13 cities in the BTH region. The IS-EC-EE system of the whole BTH region was in a highly coupled and low-coordinated development state. And the coordination degrees of the 13 cities in the BTH region had spatial differences, which were mainly due to inter-regional differences, and the differences became larger. Furthermore, the coordinated development of the 13 cities had the probability of keeping high, moderate, and low coordination. It was predicted that the coordination degree of the IS-EC-EE system in the whole BTH region in 2020–2030 was roughly similar to the trend in 2009–2019. The coordination levels of Beijing and Tianjin were higher than in Hebei Province, so optimizations need to be considered for regional overall sustainable development.