A Novel Approach to Generate Hourly Photovoltaic Power Scenarios

Abstract

Photovoltaic power is playing an ever-increasing role in the energy mix of countries worldwide. It is a stochastic energy source, and simulation models are needed to establish reliable risk management. This paper presents a novel approach for simulating hourly solar irradiation and—as a consequence—photovoltaic power based on easily accessible data such as wind, temperature, and cloudiness. Solar simulations are generated via a multiplication factor that scales the maximum possible solar irradiation. Photovoltaic simulations are then derived using formulas that approximate the physical interdependencies. The resulting simulations are unbiased on an annual level and reasonably reflect historic irradiation movements. Interpreting our approach as a descriptive model, we find that error values vary over the year and with granularity. Errors are highest when considering hourly values in wintertime, especially in the morning or late afternoon.