Absolute Risk and Attributable Fraction of Type-Specific Human Papillomavirus in Cervical Cancer and Precancerous Lesions—A Population-Based Study of 6286 Women in Rural Areas of China

Abstract

Background: To investigate the human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype distribution among the general population and assess the attribution of HPV genotypes targeted by vaccines to protect against cervical lesions theoretically. Methods: Cervical samples were collected from women aged 21 to 64 years old from Inner Mongolia and Shanxi Province in China who had not been vaccinated against HPV. HPV type-specific absolute risk (AR) to classified cervical lesions was calculated and then the attributable fraction (AF) was estimated, together with the combined contributions of the HPV types, targeted by four available HPV vaccines and five HPV vaccines in clinical trials in China to protect against cervical lesions. Results: A total of 6286 women with an average age of 44.1 years ± 8.41 (range: 21–64) participated in the study. The age distribution of 14 HR-HPV and HPV16/18 all showed a ‘U’ shape, which peaked in the ≤25 year-group and >55 year-group. The five most common genotypes were HPV16 (4.3%), HPV52 (4.1%), HPV58 (2.1%), HPV51 (2.1%), and HPV66 (1.7%). The prevalence of HPV types 6 and 11 infections was 1.1% and observed with n significant differences across age stratifications in China. AF to CIN2+ was predominated by HPV 16 with 56.2%, followed by HPV58 (12.0%), HPV52 (8.5%), HPV18 (4.3%), and HPV51 (2.9%). HPV52 and 58 in the prophylactic HPV vaccine would enhance the protection against CIN2+ by approximately 20%. Conclusions: Regarding multi-valent HPV vaccine development in China, the HPV types 16, 52, 58, and 18 should be given priority for their high prevalence at the population level, high AR, notable AF, and high relative risk to high-grade cervical lesions.