Predicting the Potential Risk Area of the Invasive Plant Galinsoga parviflora in Tibet Using the MaxEnt Model

Abstract

The Tibetan plateau, with complex and diverse ecosystems, is an important ecological security barrier to China. However, climate change and the spread of invasive plant species have imperiled the once pristine and diverse ecosystem of the region. To prevent the further spread and control of invasive plants, it is important to delineate the potential distribution patterns of alien invasive plants at the regional scale across Tibet and understand their responses to climate change. Galinsoga parviflora Cav., a member of the family Asteraceae, is an annual herbaceous plant distributed globally as an invasive weed and possesses characteristics that make it highly invasive, such as a strong ability to proliferate and disperse. The species is also known to have an allelopathic effect. There has been no report on the spatial distribution of G. parviflora in Tibet. Using field survey data, we investigated the risk of G. parviflora invasion and its impacts on the ecological safety of Tibet. We employed the MaxEnt model using the R language and SPSS software to optimize and select model parameters and data. We acquired various environmental variables along with current and future climate change scenarios (two carbon emission scenarios, SSP126 and SSP585, for the years 2050 and 2090) to predict the geographic distribution and potential risk areas in Tibet that G. parviflora can invade. The MaxEnt model accurately predicted the distribution of G. parviflora in Tibet with an average AUC of 0.985. The most suitable environmental conditions in which G. parviflora performed the best in Tibet included a mean annual temperature of 6.2–10.0 °C and an elevation range of 2672–3744 m above sea level. Our results indicate that low precipitation during the coldest quarter of the year (mean temperature −2–3 °C) was the most important variable predicting G. parviflora distribution. The results also showed that the species was hardly found when precipitation in the coldest quarter exceeded 155 mm. The current potential invasion risk areas for G. parviflora included the river valleys of central, southeastern, and eastern Tibet. With future climate change scenarios (i.e., SSP126, SSP585), the suitable habitats for G. parviflora distribution will likely shift to northwest regions from the southeast. Particularly under the highest carbon emission scenario (i.e., SSP585), the potential risk area expands more rapidly, and the center of distribution shifts to northwest regions. These findings provide useful information about the current and future changes in G. parviflora distribution in Tibet, which is crucial for the comprehensive and proactive management and control of G. parviflora under future climate change.