Downscaling MERRA-2 Reanalysis PM2.5 Series over the Arabian Gulf by Inverse Distance Weighting, Bicubic Spline Smoothing, and Spatio-Temporal Kriging

Abstract

This study offers a detailed analysis of the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) series in the Arabian Gulf zone, employing three interpolation models, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Bicubic Spline Smoothing (BSS) and Spatio-Temporal Kriging (STK). Unique advancements include the use of complete temporal records in IDW, the management of edge effects in S with synthetic buffer points, and the application of STK to detrended data residuals. The results indicated that the BBS, particularly adept at handling boundary conditions, significantly outperformed the other methods. Compared to IDW, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) decreased by 21%, 15%, and 21%, respectively, in BSS. Compared to STK, MAE, RMSE, and MAPE were lower with around 60%, 61%, and 58%, respectively in BSS. These findings underscore the efficacy of the BSS method in spatial interpolation for environmental monitoring, contributing to enhanced PM2.5 analysis and public health management in the region.