Mapping the Future of Green Gold: GIS-Based Insights into Optimal Olive-Cultivation Areas in Jordan Amidst Climate Change

Abstract

This study harnesses Geographic Information Systems (GISs) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to identify optimal areas for olive cultivation in Jordan amidst the challenges of climate change. Recognizing the olive tree’s economic, environmental and cultural significance in the Mediterranean, this research focuses on the impact of altered climatic conditions, such as rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and increased weather extremes, over the period from 1994 to 2021. By integrating climatic and topographical data, including factors such as altitude, slope, aspect and temperature variations, a multi-criteria analysis pinpoints regions suitable for sustainable olive agriculture. The methodology combines GIS-based spatial analysis with AHP to assess the suitability of various regions for olive farming, taking into account the complex interplay between climate and topography. This approach allows for the evaluation of potential agricultural zones under both current and projected climate scenarios, highlighting northern and western Jordan as areas with the highest suitability due to favorable precipitation and temperature conditions. The results of this study are vital for strategic agricultural planning, offering insights that can help enhance the resilience of olive production against climate variability. By identifying regions with optimal growing conditions and suggesting adaptive strategies, this research aims to support policymakers, agricultural developers and farmers in making informed decisions that ensure the sustainable future of olive farming in Jordan.