Assessing Numerical Model Skill at Simulating Coastal Flooding Using Field Observations of Deposited Debris and Photographic Evidence

Abstract

Despite the growing range and availability of resources to support coastal flood hazard model development, there is often a scarcity of data to support critical assessment of the performance of community-scale coastal inundation models. Even where long-term tide gauge measurements are available in close proximity to the study area, the records provide little insight into the spatial distribution and limits of overland flooding, or the influence of topographic features and structures on flooding pathways. We present methods to support the assessment of model performance using field observations in lieu of, or supplementary to, conventional water-level records. A high-resolution, numerical coastal flood hazard model was developed to simulate storm surge-driven flooding in the Acadian Peninsula region of New Brunswick, Canada. Owing to the remoteness of the study area from tide gauge stations, model performance was assessed based on a comparison with field measurements of deposited wrack and debris, as well as photographic and video evidence of coastal flooding, for two significant storm surge events in recent history. Our research findings illustrate the value of observational and qualitative data for characterizing coastal flood hazards, lending gravity to the importance of non-conventional data sources, particularly in data-scarce regions.