A Suitable Model for Spatiotemporal Particulate Matter Concentration Prediction in Rural and Urban Landscapes, Thailand

Abstract

Spatiotemporal particulate matter (PM) concentration prediction using MODIS AOD with significant PM factors in rural and urban landscapes in Thailand is necessary for public health and has been complicated by the limitations of PM monitoring stations. The research objectives were (1) to identify significant factors affecting PM10 concentrations in rural landscapes and PM2.5 in urban landscapes; (2) to predict spatiotemporal PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and mixed-effect model (MEM), and (3) to evaluate a suitable spatiotemporal model for PM10 and PM2.5 concentration prediction and validation. The research methodology consisted of four stages: data collection and preparation, the identification of significant spatiotemporal factors affecting PM concentrations, the prediction of spatiotemporal PM concentrations, and a suitable spatiotemporal model for PM concentration prediction and validation. As a result, the predicted PM10 concentrations using the GWR model varied from 50.53 to 85.79 µg/m3 and from 36.92 to 51.32 µg/m3 in winter and summer, while the predicted PM10 concentrations using the MEM model varied from 50.68 to 84.59 µg/m3 and from 37.08 to 50.81 µg/m3 in both seasons. Likewise, the PM2.5 concentration prediction using the GWR model varied from 25.33 to 44.37 µg/m3 and from 16.69 to 24.04 µg/m3 in winter and summer, and the PM2.5 concentration prediction using the MEM model varied from 25.45 to 44.36 µg/m3 and from 16.68 and 23.75 µg/m3 during the two seasons. Meanwhile, according to Thailand and U.S. EPA standards, the monthly air quality index (AQI) classifications of the GWR and MEM were similar. Nevertheless, the derived average corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) values of the GWR model for PM10 and PM2.5 predictions during both seasons were lower than that of the MEM model. Therefore, the GWR model was chosen as a suitable model for spatiotemporal PM10 and PM2.5 concentration predictions. Furthermore, the result of spatial correlation analysis for GWR model validation based on a new dataset provided average correlation coefficient values for PM10 and PM2.5 concentration predictions with a higher than the expected value of 0.5. Subsequently, the GWR model with significant monthly and seasonal factors could predict spatiotemporal PM 10 and PM2.5 concentrations in rural and urban landscapes in Thailand.