Modeling Ground Ozone Concentration Changes after Variations in Precursor Emissions and Assessing Their Benefits in the Kanto Region of Japan

Abstract

Ozone (O3) is a pollutant of concern in urban areas because of its effects on health, crops, ecosystems, and materials. Despite efforts to meet the Japanese air quality standard for O3 in the Kanto region, the attainment percentage is close to zero. Considering that O3 formation is sensitive to emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), this study evaluated a range of reductions in the emissions of both precursors using a regional air quality model (ADMER-PRO) and estimated their benefits measured as the economic change due to O3 concentration differences between scenarios. The simulation period was set during the 2016 O3 season. The results showed that O3 concentrations could be reduced using two approaches: significant reduction in VOC levels combined with minor NOx level changes or significant NOx emission reduction. Significant reduction in NOx levels was the most effective strategy for a generalized decrease in the O3 levels in the Kanto region, and the benefit analysis revealed that the most significant economic impacts could be achieved by adopting the latter approach.