Interdecadal Change in the Relationship between the Winter Siberian High and Summer Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

Abstract

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the winter Siberian high (SH) and tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) is investigated using observational and reanalysis data. Focus is on the Western North Pacific (WNP) where environmental background associated with TCGF is closely related to the winter SH. It is demonstrated that the relationship presents clear interdecadal change during 1980–2020. A significant negative correlation dominates in the last two decades of the 20th century (P1), but it clearly weakens from the early 2000s onward (P2). Observational evidence shows that such interdecadal change is related dominantly to variations in the air–sea responses associated with the winter SH over the North Pacific. During P1, when the SH is anomalously strengthened, an Aleutian Low (AL) response occurs over the downstream North Pacific, which gradually develops into a meridional dipole distribution pattern consistent with the negative North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) mode during the following spring. The northeasterly wind anomaly over the subtropical North Pacific maintains and further delivers into the tropical Pacific. It favors easterly wind anomaly enhancement over the tropical Pacific around summer and grows into an anticyclonic circulation response in the WNP, which restrains the genesis of TCs. During P2, the eastward shift of the SH anomaly favors a weak AL over the Northeast Pacific followed by a northeastward-shifted anticyclone over the subtropical central-eastern Pacific, which confines the relatively weak northeasterly wind anomalies far away from the tropical Pacific. This was concurrent with a weakening relationship between the SH and WNP TCGF, indicating weaker downstream impacts of the winter SH.