CO2 Emissions Forecast and Emissions Peak Analysis in Shanxi Province, China: An Application of the LEAP Model

Abstract

Shanxi Province, an important source of coal resources in China, has consumed a large amount of fossil fuels in the past few decades. The CO2 emissions of Shanxi Province have been increasing annually, reaching 541.8 million tons in 2018, 54.6% higher than the national mean. This will have a negative impact on China’s ability to meet its target of peaking CO2 emissions by 2030. To assist China to achieve this target and reduce CO2 emissions in Shanxi Province, this study used the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to analyze the CO2 emissions and peaks in Shanxi Province from 2019 to 2035 under different scenarios. Furthermore, this study analyzed the time to peak CO2 emissions under different emission reduction measures through a sensitivity analysis. The results show that in the absence of other mitigation policy interventions, CO2 emissions in Shanxi Province will increase annually, reaching 1646.2 million tons by 2035. Furthermore, this study shows that if shares of industrial gross domestic product (GDP) in Shanxi, energy intensity reduction in the industrial and transport sectors compared to the base scenario, thermal power, and relative clean energy consumption reach 25%, 30%, 50%, and 50%, respectively, by 2035, then CO2 emissions of Shanxi would peak at 801.2 million tons in 2029 and GDP per capita would increase to USD 2000 by 2035. Finally, according to the results of this study, we have made some recommendations for emission reduction in Shanxi Province. The limitation of this study was that the implementation cost of the abatement policy was not considered.