Potential Dam Breach Analysis and Flood Wave Risk Assessment Using HEC-RAS and Remote Sensing Data: A Multicriteria Approach

Abstract

Dam breach has disastrous consequences for the economy and human lives. Floods are one of the most damaging natural phenomena, and some of the most catastrophic flash floods are related to dam collapses. The goal of the present study is to analyse the impact of a possible failure–collapse on a potentially affected area downstream of the existing Bramianos dam on southern Crete Island. HEC-RAS hydraulic analysis software was used to study the dam breach, the flood wave propagation, and estimate the extent of floods. The analysis was performed using two different relief datasets of the same area: a digital elevation model (DEM) taken from very high-resolution orthophoto images (OPH) of the National Cadastre and Mapping Agency SA and a detailed digital surface model (DSM) extracted from aerial images taken by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). Remote sensing data of the Sentinel-2 satellite and OPH were utilised to create the geographic information system (GIS) layers of a thorough land use/cover classification (LULC) for the potentially flooded area, which was used to assess the impact of the flood wave. Different dam breach and flood scenarios, where the water flows over man-made structures, settlements, and olive tree cultivations, were also examined. The study area is dominated mainly by three geological formations with different hydrogeological characteristics that dictated the positioning and structure of the dam and determine the processes that shape the geomorphology and surface roughness of the floodplain, affecting flow conditions. The results show that the impact of a potential dam break at Bramianos dam is serious, and appropriate management measures should be taken to reduce the risk. The water flow downstream of the collapsed dam depends on the water volume stored in the reservoir. Moreover, the comparison of DSM and DEM cases shows that the detailed DSM may indicate more accurately the surface relief and existing natural obstacles such as vegetation, buildings, and greenhouses, enabling more realistic hydraulic simulation results. Dam breach flood simulations and innovative remote sensing data can provide valuable outcomes for engineers and stakeholders for decision-making and planning in order to confront the consequences of similar incidents worldwide.