A Qualitative Assessment of the Trends, Distribution and Sources of Methane in South Africa

Abstract

Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas (GHG) in terms of its concentration and impact on the climate. In the present study, we investigate the trends, sources and distribution of CH4 in South Africa. The study uses satellite datasets from Sentinel-5P and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The study also uses credible datasets from the World Bank, Statistics South Africa and the Global Methane Initiative (GMI). The results show an increasing trend of CH4 from 1970–1989. A turning point is observed in 1989, where a decreasing trend is observed from 1989–2001. An increasing trend is then observed from 2001 to 2021. A high concentration of CH4 is observed in the northern and interior parts of South Africa. The results also show that CH4 concentration is influenced by seasonal variations. The September–October–November (SON) season has the highest CH4 concentration distribution in South Africa. The World Bank, Statistics South Africa and the GMI CH4 indictors show that agricultural activities, i.e., involving livestock, are the greatest emitters of CH4 in South Africa, followed by landfill sites. From the livestock data, sheep are the highest emitters of CH4. The increasing CH4 trend is a concern and efforts need to be made to drastically reduce emissions, if South Africa is to meet the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, 2015 Paris Agreement, sustainable development goal 13 (SDG 13) and the COP26 outcome agreements.