Hibernation of Secession Tensions in Catalonia: Attenuation Trends on Antagonistic Alignments

Abstract

The secession campaign in Catalonia created a political fracture into two sizeable and opposing citizenry segments, those who favored secession from Spain and those who were against it. In a series of longitudinal studies covering the entire period of regular surveys made by the official polling agency of the Regional Government (2006–2019), we showed that this fissure operated mainly through an ethnolinguistic cleavage based on family language and ascendancy origins. Media outlets linked to successive pro-secession Regional Governments accentuated the division. Here we extend these analyses till 2022, to capture potential variations in such a division across the five years following the failed secession attempt of October 2017. Present findings confirm the persistence of the fissure along similar lines: family language interacts with the influence of regional partisan media to keep the fracture alive, though with trends denoting an attenuation of antagonistic identity alignments. We detected, as well, a turning point for the attenuation of both political confrontation and social division, within a conflict that has not been solved, albeit it appears mitigated. We discuss how elapsed time after secession failure and the effects of several political and non-political events might have helped to dampen down divisive tensions and repair a serious fracture produced by the secession push.