Combination of Multiple Variables and Machine Learning for Regional Cropland Water and Carbon Fluxes Estimation: A Case Study in the Haihe River Basin

Abstract

Understanding the water and carbon cycles within terrestrial ecosystems is crucial for effective monitoring and management of regional water resources and the ecological environment. However, physical models like the SEB- and LUE-based ones can be complex and demand extensive input data. In our study, we leveraged multiple variables (vegetation growth, surface moisture, radiative energy, and other relative variables) as inputs for various regression algorithms, including Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), and Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), to estimate water (ET) and carbon fluxes (NEE) in the Haihe River Basin, and compared the estimated results with the observations from six eddy covariance flux towers. We aimed to (1) assess the impacts of different input variables on the accuracy of ET and NEE estimations, (2) compare the accuracy of the three regression methods, including three machine learning algorithms and Multiple Linear Regression, and (3) evaluate the performance of ET and NEE estimation models across various regions. The key findings include: (1) Increasing the number of input variables typically improved the accuracy of ET and NEE estimations. (2) RFR proved to be the most accurate for both ET and NEE estimations among the three regression algorithms. Of these, the four types of variables used together with RFR resulted in the best accuracy for ET (R2 of 0.81 and an RMSE of 1.13 mm) and NEE (R2 of 0.83 and an RMSE of 2.83 gC/m2) estimations. (3) Vegetation growth variables (i.e., VIs) are the most important inputs for ET and NEE estimation. (4) The proposed ET and NEE estimation models exhibited some variation in accuracy across different validation sites. Despite these variations, the accuracy levels across all six validation sites remained relatively high. Overall, this study lays the groundwork for an efficient approach to agricultural water resources and ecosystem monitoring and management.