A Novel Approach for Predicting Heavy Metal Contamination Based on Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and GIS in an Arid Ecosystem

Abstract

The issue of agricultural soil pollution is especially important as it directly affects the quality of food and the lives of humans and animals. Soil pollution is linked to human activities and agricultural practices. The main objective of this study is to assess and predict soil contamination by heavy metals utilizing an innovative method based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), an effective artificial intelligence technology, and GIS in a semiarid and dry environment. A total of 150 soil samples were randomly collected in the neighboring area of the Bahr El-Baqar drain. Ordinary kriging (OK) was employed to generate spatial pattern maps for the following heavy metals: chromium (Cr), iron (Fe), cadmium (Cd), and nickel (Ni). The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), known as one of the most effective applications of artificial intelligence (AI), was utilized to predict soil contamination by the selected heavy metals (Cr, Fe, Cd, and Ni). In total 150 samples were used, 136 soil samples were used for training and 14 for testing. The ANFIS predicting results were compared with the experimental results; this comparison proved its effectiveness, as a root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.048594 in training, and 0.0687 in testing, which is an acceptable result. The results showed that both the exponential and spherical models were quite suitable for Cr, Fe, and Ni. The correlation values (R2) were close to one in training and test; however, the stable model performed well with Cd. The high concentration of heavy metals was the most prevalent, encompassing approximately 51.6% of the study area. Furthermore, the average concentration of heavy metals in this degree was 82.86 ± 15.59 mg kg−1 for Cr, 20,963.84 ± 4447.83 mg kg−1 for Fe, 1.46 ± 0.42 mg kg−1 for Cd, and 48.71 ± 11.88 mg kg−1 for Ni. The comparison clearly demonstrates that utilizing the ANFIS model is a superior option for predicting the level of soil pollution. Ultimately, these findings can serve as a foundation for decision-makers to develop acceptable measures for mitigating heavy metal contamination.