Construction and Validation of Peanut Leaf Spot Disease Prediction Model Based on Long Time Series Data and Deep Learning

Abstract

Peanut leaf spot is a worldwide disease whose prevalence poses a major threat to peanut yield and quality, and accurate prediction models are urgently needed for timely disease management. In this study, we proposed a novel peanut leaf spot prediction method based on an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) model and multi-year meteorological data combined with disease survey records. Our method employed a combination of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and LSTMs to capture spatial–temporal patterns from the data and improve the model’s ability to recognize dynamic features of the disease. In addition, we introduced a Squeeze-and-Excitation (SE) Network attention mechanism module to enhance model performance by focusing on key features. Through several hyper-parameter optimization adjustments, we identified a peanut leaf spot disease condition index prediction model with a learning rate of 0.001, a number of cycles (Epoch) of 800, and an optimizer of Adma. The results showed that the integrated model demonstrated excellent prediction ability, obtaining an RMSE of 0.063 and an R2 of 0.951, which reduced the RMSE by 0.253 and 0.204, and raised the R2 by 0.155 and 0.122, respectively, compared to the single CNN and LSTM. Predicting the occurrence and severity of peanut leaf spot disease based on the meteorological conditions and neural networks is feasible and valuable to help growers make accurate management decisions and reduce disease impacts through optimal fungicide application timing.