Simulation of the Progress of the Decarbonization Process in Poland’s Road Transport Sector

Abstract

In the years ahead, the majority of the EU member states will be implementing their energy and climate plans. These plans are aimed at fulfilling obligations related to the strategy for the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy and the “Fit for 55” package. The European Commission has presented highly challenging proposals for the decarbonization of the transport sector through electrification and support for innovation. The decarbonization of transport will not be possible without cooperation and mutual understanding between manufacturers, suppliers, and customers, or without proper organization of the transport process itself. High-emission means of transport must be replaced with low-emission ones. In the EU, road transport generates 70% of all transport emissions. There are few scalable decarbonization opportunities in the transport sector. Various kinds of solutions should be promoted, yet at the same time, it is imperative to analyze the current situation and forecast desirable potential future outcomes. By employing optimization theory tools, specifically the SOLVER add-in—an Excel-based optimization tool—the optimum structure of the stock of road transport vehicles in Poland’s commercial road transport sector was searched for. Several research hypotheses were formulated, primarily focusing on the potential for electric vehicles to reduce emissions significantly. These findings suggest a promising outlook for this transition, with particular implications for decision-makers in the field of shaping transport policy. As a result of the conducted analyses and simulations, the hypothesis—that the application of selected elements of optimization theory tools allows us to determine the optimum stock structure of the Polish road transport sector in terms of propulsion system type (emission performance) in the context of pollutant emission targets set for the sector resulting from the EU’s climate policy targets, the European Green Deal, and the EU’s transport policy in terms of decarbonization, taking into account determinants and constraints included in the analysis—was confirmed. An important finding and result is the statement that, in its current state, the Polish road transport sector is not ready for the challenges related to the new goals of climate policy, the European Green Deal, and EU transport policy in the context of decarbonization.