Defining Wildfire Susceptibility Maps in Italy for Understanding Seasonal Wildfire Regimes at the National Level

Author:

Trucchia AndreaORCID,Meschi GiorgioORCID,Fiorucci Paolo,Gollini Andrea,Negro Dario

Abstract

Wildfires constitute an extremely serious social and environmental issue in the Mediterranean region, with impacts on human lives, infrastructures and ecosystems. It is therefore important to produce susceptibility maps for wildfire management. The wildfire susceptibility is defined as a static probability of experiencing wildfire in a certain area, depending on the intrinsic characteristics of the territory. In this work, a machine learning model based on the Random Forest Classifier algorithm is employed to obtain national scale susceptibility maps for Italy at a 500 m spatial resolution. In particular, two maps are produced, one for each specific wildfire season, the winter and the summer one. Developing such analysis at the national scale allows for having a deep understanding on the wildfire regimes furnishing a tool for wildfire risk management. The selected machine learning model is capable of associating a data-set of geographic, climatic, and anthropic information to the synoptic past burned area. The model is then used to classify each pixel of the study area, producing the susceptibility map. Several stages of validation are proposed, with the analysis of ground retrieved wildfire databases and with recent wildfire events obtained through remote sensing techniques.

Funder

Italian Civil Protection Department - Presidency of the Council of Ministers

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),Safety Research,Environmental Science (miscellaneous),Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality,Building and Construction,Forestry

Reference60 articles.

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4. Advance EFFIS Report on Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2019https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC120692

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