Applied Machine Learning Algorithms for Courtyards Thermal Patterns Accurate Prediction

Abstract

Currently, there is a lack of accurate simulation tools for the thermal performance modeling of courtyards due to their intricate thermodynamics. Machine Learning (ML) models have previously been used to predict and evaluate the structural performance of buildings as a means of solving complex mathematical problems. Nevertheless, the microclimatic conditions of the building surroundings have not been as thoroughly addressed by these methodologies. To this end, in this paper, the adaptation of ML techniques as a more comprehensive methodology to fill this research gap, covering not only the prediction of the courtyard microclimate but also the interpretation of experimental data and pattern recognition, is proposed. Accordingly, based on the climate zoning and aspect ratios of 32 monitored case studies located in the South of Spain, the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method was applied to predict the measured temperature inside the courtyard. The results provided by this strategy showed good accuracy when compared to monitored data. In particular, for two representative case studies, if the daytime slot with the highest urban overheating is considered, the relative error is almost below 0.05%. Additionally, values for statistical parameters are in good agreement with other studies in the literature, which use more computationally expensive CFD models and show more accuracy than existing commercial tools.