MELD-GRAIL-Na Is a Better Predictor of Mortality Than MELD in Korean Patients with Cirrhosis

Abstract

Background and Objectives: The Child–Pugh (CP) score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) are classical systems for predicting mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). The MELD-GFR assessment in liver disease–sodium (MELD-GRAIL-Na) was designed to better reflect renal function and, therefore, provide better mortality predictions. This study aimed to compare the prediction accuracy of MELD-GRAIL-Na compared to CP and MELD in predicting short-term (1- and 3-month) mortality in Korean patients. Materials and Methods: Medical records of patients with LC admitted to the Konkuk University Hospital from 2015 to 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Predictive values of the CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na for 1-month and 3-month mortality were calculated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and were compared using DeLong’s test. Results: In total, 1249 patients were enrolled; 102 died within 1 month, and 146 within 3 months. AUROCs of CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na were 0.831, 0.847, and 0.857 for 1-month mortality and 0.837, 0.827, and 0.835 for 3-month mortality, respectively, indicating no statistical significance. For patients with CP classes B and C, AUROCs of CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na were 0.782, 0.809, and 0.825 for 1-month mortality and 0.775, 0.769, and 0.786 for 3-month mortality, respectively. There was a significant difference between CP and MELD-GRAIL-Na in predicting 1-month mortality (p = 0.0428) and between MELD and MELD-GRAIL-Na in predicting 1-month (p = 0.0493) and 3-month mortality (p = 0.0225). Conclusions: Compared to CP and MELD, MELD-GRAIL-Na was found to be a better and more useful system for evaluating short-term (1- and 3-month) mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis, especially those with advanced cirrhosis (CP class B and C).