Concerns on Full Electric Mobility and Future Electricity Demand in Italy

Abstract

This work aims to provide an energy and critical analysis of the new “ecological scenario” that sees the world shift the transport sector from the classic fossil-fueled traction towards a purely electric traction. Is it a transition to a cleaner and more environmentally friendly world? This is the central question we need to answer. In this context of forced electrification of passenger vehicles, the authors estimated the electricity surplus needed in Italy to face this transition with a projection up to 2050, considering the electricity demand of purely electric vehicles and for the production of green hydrogen for the fuel supply of fuel cell vehicles. Throughout this investigation, the authors discovered that, in 2050, the surplus of electricity to be produced compared to the current production in Italy (year 2021) is equal to +27.6% (1). This value increases if two limit scenarios are considered: it becomes +40.0% within a limit scenario in which the entire private car fleet is made up of pure electric traction vehicles only (2). It becomes +100.6% in the hypothesis that the entire fleet of passenger cars is made up of fuel cell vehicles powered exclusively by green hydrogen (3).