Applying Machine Learning for Enhanced MicroRNA Analysis: A Companion Risk Tool for Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Standard Care Incisional Biopsy

Abstract

Machine learning analyses within the realm of oral cancer outcomes are relatively underexplored compared to other cancer types. This study aimed to assess the performance of machine learning algorithms in identifying oral cancer patients, utilizing microRNA expression data. In this study, we implemented this approach using a panel of oral cancer-associated microRNAs sourced from standard incisional biopsy specimens to identify cases of oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCC). For the model development process, we used a dataset comprising 30 OSCC and 30 histologically normal epithelium (HNE) cases. We initially trained a logistic regression prediction model using 70 percent of the dataset, while reserving the remaining 30 percent for testing. Subsequently, the model underwent hyperparameter tuning resulting in enhanced performance metrics. The hyperparameter-tuned model exhibited high accuracy (0.894) and ROC AUC (0.898) in predicting OSCC. Testing the model on cases of potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs) revealed that leukoplakia with mild dysplasia was predicted as having a high risk of progressing to OSCC, emphasizing machine learning’s advantage over histopathology in detecting early molecular changes. These findings underscore the necessity for further refinement, incorporating a broader set of variables to enhance the model’s predictive capabilities in assessing the risk of oral potentially malignant disorders.