Spatial Predictive Modeling of the Burning of Sugarcane Plots in Northeast Thailand with Selection of Factor Sets Using a GWR Model and Machine Learning Based on an ANN-CA

Abstract

The main purpose of the study is to apply symmetry principles to general mathematical modelling based on multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach for use in development in conjunction with geographic weighted regression (GWR) model and optimize the artificial neural network-cellular automaton (ANN-CA) model for forecasting the sugarcane plot burning area of Northeast Thailand. First, to calculate the service area boundaries of sugarcane transport that caused the burning of sugarcane with a fire radiative power (FRP) values using spatial correlation analysis approach. Second, the analysis of the spatial factors influencing sugarcane burning. The study uses the approach of symmetry in the design of algorithm for finding the optimal service boundary distance (called as cut-off) in the analysis of hot-spot clustering and uses calculations with the geographic information system (GIS) approach, and the final stage is the use of screened independent variable factors to predict the plots of burned sugarcane in 2031. The results showed that the positively related factors for the percentage of cane plot sintering in the sub-area units of each sugar plant’s service were the distance to transport sugarcane plots index and percentage of sugarcane plantations in service areas, while the negative coefficients were FRP differences and density of sugarcane yield factors, according to the analysis with a total of seven spatial variables. The best GWR models display local R2 values at levels of 0.902 to 0.961 in the service zones of Khonburi and Saikaw. An influential set of independent variables can increase the accuracy of the ANN-CA model in forecasting with kappa statistical estimates in the range of 0.81 to 0.85 The results of the study can be applied to other regions of Thailand, including countries with similar sugarcane harvesting industries, to formulate policies to reduce the exposure of sugarcane harvested by burning methods and to support the transportation of sugarcane within the appropriate scope of service so that particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) can be reduced.