A Data-Driven Based Method for Pipeline Additional Stress Prediction Subject to Landslide Geohazards

Abstract

Pipelines that cross complex geological terrains are inevitably threatened by natural hazards, among which landslide attracts extensive attention when pipelines cross mountainous areas. The landslides are typically associated with ground movements that would induce additional stress on the pipeline. Such stress state of pipelines under landslide interference seriously damage structural integrity of the pipeline. Up to the date, limited research has been done on the combined landslide hazard and pipeline stress state analysis. In this paper, a multi-parameter integrated monitoring system was developed for the pipeline stress-strain state and landslide deformation monitoring. Also, data-driven models for the pipeline additional stress prediction was established. The developed predictive models include individual and ensemble-based machine learning approaches. The implementation procedure of the predictive models integrates the field data measured by the monitoring system, with k-fold cross validation used for the generalization performance evaluation. The obtained results indicate that the XGBoost model has the highest performance in the prediction of the additional stress. Besides, the significance of the input variables is determined through sensitivity analyses by using feature importance criteria. Thus, the integrated monitoring system together with the XGBoost prediction method is beneficial to modeling the additional stress in oil and gas pipelines, which will further contribute to pipeline geohazards monitoring management.