Opportunity or Challenge? Carbon Emissions Reduction under New Development Pattern of Dual Circulation

Abstract

China’s economic development strategy is undergoing an evolution from foreign to domestic circulation mainly, and at the same time faces the rigid constraints of “carbon peak before 2030” and “carbon neutrality before 2060”. However, both domestic and foreign trade also have an important impact on carbon dioxide emissions. To this end, this paper uses China’s 2017 multi-regional Input-Output table to systematically simulate the impact of the new development pattern on carbon emissions from the comprehensive perspective of production and consumption. Our simulations find that when the foreign circulation disappears, the total economic output will be hit hard, and carbon emissions will be greatly reduced; when the foreign circulation orientation weakens and the intensity of the domestic circulation is increased, the total economic output will increase to varying degrees, but the total carbon emissions will also increase by a certain extent. Among them, the increase in carbon emissions at the living end accounts for a considerable proportion, while the carbon emissions of electricity, heat production and supply, transportation, warehousing and postal services, metal smelting and rolling processing industries at the production end increase more. From a policy perspective, the government should promote green production and green consumption to achieve a balance between economic growth and carbon emission reduction.